A life on the edge. We will have to abandon our seaside villages to the waves because of coastal erosion. But what about those who refuse to leave?

Daily Express - 22nd August, 2008 (Nick Constable)

The gardens always go first. A widening crack on the lawn, a slumping flowerbed, a crooked fence. And then, one day, a familiar underground rumble and a sea view which looks frighteningly closer.

For thousands of coastal residents this is the reality of life on the edge. A combination of rising sea levels, intensifying storms and increased rainfall means their homes are slipping into the sea faster than they ever dreamed possible.

They may be Britain's first tangible victims of climate change but they won't be the last. The time-honoured government tactic of maintaining sea defences where economically possible, and abandoning land where not, is no longer enough.

Soon, the experts agree, there will be too much to defend. And perhaps entire towns to abandon.

When the new head of the Environment Agency Lord Smith spoke this week of 'difficult choices' over coastal erosion he sent a wake-up call to ministers. Because after a decade of agonising about the impact of climate change there remains no clear strategy for those in the frontline - the coastline - on how Britain should respond.

'This is the most difficult issue we are going to face as an agency,' said Lord Smith.

'We know the sea is eating away at the coast in quite a number of places, primarily - but not totally exclusively - on the east and south coasts.

'It's a particularly huge issue in East Anglia but in quite a number of other areas as well.'

Lord Smith - better known as Culture Secretary Chris Smith under Tony Blair - went on: 'We are almost certainly not going to be able to defend absolutely every bit of coast - it would simply be an impossible task both in financial terms and engineering terms.'

He spoke of identifying 'priority areas', of 'talking to communities where defence is not a viable option', of ending the reliance on home insurance companies and of re-housing residents at taxpayers expense.

More pointedly he concluded: 'We need to start having a serious discussion with government about what options can be put in place.'

Lord Smith didn't spell it out - perhaps because ministers are staring at a current budget deficit of £43 billion - but those options will be expensive. And unpopular.

At the moment there are only a handful of severely affected coastal communities under the spotlight. Happisburgh, north Norfolk, is one. Southwold another, Lyme Regis, Devon, a third.

But according to research by the National Trust, which owns one tenth of the England, Wales and Northern Ireland coast the picture is changing rapidly. Within 75 years the Trust estimates that 110,000 properties will be directly threatened by coastal erosion.

Given their location, these will hardly be downmarket homes. Using a conservative estimate based on the current average house price - £219,262 - a staggering £24 billion worth of real estate could be heading beneath the waves. And this within the lifetimes of millions now alive.

The Trust identifies the south-west at greatest risk, predicting that 174 miles of its land there will be hit by coastal erosion. Wales is next (104 miles) followed by the north-east (52 miles), eastern England (45), the south-east (44), Yorkshire (12) and the north-west (9).

These figures take no account of either tidal flooding - likely to affect dozens of coastal cities including London - or non-NT land. But they do indicate that few parts of Britain will escape the remorseless grinding of the sea.

Why haven't we grasped the mettle? The statistics on rising sea levels are beyond dispute but their impact on the public psyche has arguably been dulled by squabbles over the reality of global warming.

In fact, as any GCSE geography student knows, ocean levels just 18,000 years ago were some 130 metres higher than today. Human activity may well be affecting this process but the seas need no industrial boom in India and China to be swollen by a warmer climate and melting ice.

The real question is: how fast is it happening.

According to a tidal gauge at Newlyn, Cornwall, sea levels around Britain have risen by around eight inches over 60 years. Just up the coast at St Michael's Mount records show that the low tide window in which visitors cross the causeway to the island has shrunk from three hours 200 years ago to two hours today.

In 40 years, according to current models, they'll have to jog there and back inside an hour.

But it's not just whether sea levels rise by 28 - 43cm (11 - 16in) by 2100, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts, or 0.8 - 1.5 metres (Proudman Oceanographic Lab, Liverpool).

A warming climate means more ferocious storms, bigger waves, more intense rainfall to 'lubricate' land slips and, inevitably, faster coastal erosion. Predicting the worst hit areas is now the Environment Agency's number one priority.

Dr Jasper Knight, a lecturer in physical geography at the University of Exeter's Falmouth campus, says Britain's geology - hard versus soft rock - and intricate coastline will be major factors.

'The map of the British Isles will look very different in 100 years,' he says. 'There will be extensive coastal erosion but that sediment has got to go somewhere and the coast may also be built up in places.

'However the point has come where we can no longer be Fortress Britain. We can't concrete the entire coastline and make it fixed. As a country we must make difficult decisions about which areas to protect.'

The problem is that, under current government policy, not everywhere can be protected.

Richard Edmonds, earth science manager for Dorset's Jurassic Coast World Heritage Site - one of the country's most unstable stretches of coast - says ministers use the 'Three Es' test to decide whether sea defences are viable.

Put simply, is a project economically sound, is it environmentally acceptable and is the engineering feasible? For isolated coastal areas the economics test is usually the killer because the value of property protected must be at least five times the cost of defences.

He cites the example of Sidmouth, east Devon, where shortly after new sea defences were completed erosion rapidly increased. Eleven gardens began falling into the sea but it would have cost several million pounds to protect them with 200 metres of rock armour.

'You don't get funding to protect people's gardens,' said Mr Edmonds. 'This is a balancing act.

'It might be economically sound to protect a seaside resort but what of the environmental impact. You could end up covering your beaches in rock armour (giant boulders) and destroy the beauty that made people want to live there in the first place.

'It's bloody difficult. My personal view is that in 50 - 100 years time budgets will be entirely focused on protecting major cities at sea level. I still can't believe they built Canary Wharf where they did.

'At the moment local authorities have only two choices. Defend or abandon. We need to look at more creative solutions such as compensation or the French idea of buying up entire coastal villages and re-housing residents inland.'

In trouble economic times such ideas will be anathema to the Treasury. Yet Phil Dyke, Coast and Marine Advisor to the National Trust believes compensating affected residents need not cripple taxpayers. v Homes expected to crumble in 30 years time could, he argues, be purchased by local authorities and re-let on short-term leases - either as holiday homes or for rental.

'We need a wide range of policy options rather than defend-or-do-nothing' he said. 'Compensation for abandoned homes could be problematic - there's a risk that speculators will buy up endangered properties.

'But where we're already defending the coast why can't existing owners be bought out and their homes re-let. Studies have shown you could actually generate a financial surplus that way.

'We are convinced that natural coastlines are more resilient than engineered ones.'

Whatever the human anguish, it's hard to argue with this. For all the achievements of the technology age the immense forces of the Earth's climate and oceans are beyond our comprehension. And if we're not with Mother Nature we're against her.

There's still time to adapt, re-think and re-draw the map of Britain. Time to protect our most precious heritage while letting some of it go. But it may be later than we think.

As King Canute discovered, the tide waits for no man.

Case study 1. Di Wrightson, tea-shop proprieter, Happisburgh, north Norfolk.

When Di Wrightson bought her Edwardian semi on Beach Road, Happisburgh, 28 years ago the clifftop was 40 yards away and bungalows blocked her view.

Today the bungalows are long gone, the sea rolls into her garden, her garage has been washed away and a house which should be worth £200,000 is valueless.

'On winter evenings, when the storms sweep in, I wonder whether I'm spending my last night here,' she says.

'Spring tides plus a north-east wind - that's the combination we all dread.

'I bought this place knowing I was on an officially protected coast. But that means nothing. The government has just left everything to North Norfolk District Council and though they have tried to repair the defences they haven't enough money.

'We were told to be ready to go in 2003. When it finally happens I will walk away with nothing - the bricks and mortar are my savings.'

Mrs Wrightson says the Coast Protection Act 1949 is all but useless to Happisburgh because it states only that local councils may protect coastal areas.

She believes the authorities are concerned only with safeguarding towns and that affected villages are on borrowed time.

'Tsunamis attract a lot of attention because they come from nowhere,' she said. 'What we have is a slow motion Tsunami. It means we can be forgotten.'

Case study 2. Derek Hallett, 67, retired dog warden, Lyme Regis.

Derek Hallett and his partner Susanne Whitemore, 51, live on one of Europe's most active landslip zones. Over 16 years his garden has shrunk by 24ft.

This despite years of defence works - the latest being a £750,000, 52ft deep wall of concrete piles - to shore up the cliffs.

For Derek the speed of erosion is unsurprising. His family roots stretch back 400 years - 'we were slave traders' - and among his most prized possessions is a sketch made in 1723 showing an astonishing three miles of land between his cottage and the cliffs.

'Our Residents Association has fought constantly to keep the defences repaired,' he said.

'Trouble is, the likes of English Heritage and Natural England seem content to let the sea have everything.

'Lyme Regis needs around £18 million worth of work right now to keep the town in shape for a few more years. Without that 172 properties are at risk and one main road will be gone within 50 years.

'Whatever happens we won't leave. If the house collapses we'll build up the rubble and stick a caravan on it.'